Market Briefing, Aug 20 2026: Alibaba's Profit Sinks 75% as Treasury Buyback Calms Yields

Market Briefing: Thursday, August 20, 2026

Stocks notched a second straight gain Wednesday after the Treasury said it would more than double buybacks of long-dated debt, pulling the 30-year yield down 10 basis points to 5.18% and giving healthcare and cyclicals room to run. Options tide flipped net-negative into the close even as the tape finished green, and today's setup is dominated by a five-name earnings pileup — Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase and Ross Stores — landing alongside jobless claims and the Leading Economic Index. Alibaba's premarket reaction is already testing whether AI-capex angst outweighs an in-line revenue print.

Where the major indexes stand

Market setup

Key levels (dealer gamma)

Call walls mark strikes where dealer hedging may slow rallies; put walls mark strikes where dealer hedging may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates derived from options gamma, not guarantees of future price behavior.

Today's five things that matter

1. Treasury buyback eases the bond rout. The Treasury will more than double repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt, pulling the 30-year yield down 10bps to 5.18%.
2. Alibaba's profit craters, stock barely flinches. Revenue rose 9% to 268.95B yuan (roughly in line) but net income fell 75% on AI capex; U.S. shares fell as much as 4% premarket before paring to about -1.6%.
3. A five-name earnings pileup. Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase and Ross Stores all report today; Deere already raised its full-year profit forecast.
4. Dealer gamma is stacking a wall at SPY 775. Repeated ask-side call buying at the 775 strike lines up with the largest positive-gamma strike above spot.
5. Bitcoin rips over 10%. BTC jumped toward $71,870 on optimism around pending crypto legislation.

Today's market calendar (ET)

Notable earnings

Already reported: Alibaba (BABA) — revenue +9% (in line), net income -75% on AI capex, shares volatile premarket. Deere (DE) — raised its full-year profit outlook.

Still ahead before the open: Walmart (WMT) ±4.5% implied move, NetEase (NTES) ±5.1%, plus Futu Holdings (FUTU) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP).

After the close: Ross Stores (ROST) ±5.6%, OSI Systems (OSIS) ±6.1%, Flowers Foods (FLO).

Notable options flow

What to Watch

The next few hours will be dominated by earnings digestion rather than macro data: Walmart's guidance tone on tariffs and the consumer, Deere's read on the agricultural cycle, and whether Alibaba's AI-spend justification holds up through the trading session. Jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the Leading Economic Index at 10:00 AM ET, round out the macro calendar. Options positioning suggests the SPY 775 strike is the level to watch on any rally attempt, with 760 as the nearest cushion on a pullback. Retail attention remains concentrated in NVDA, NBIS and MU ahead of next week's chip earnings, alongside a fresh spike in Nike (NKE) mentions.

Sign-off

That's the setup heading into the bell. Markets remain data- and earnings-dependent from here, with the Treasury's bond-buying intervention doing more to shape sentiment this week than any single economic print.