Markets Brief, August 13, 2026: CPI Cools to 3.4%, AI Earnings Keep the Rally Alive

Markets Brief, August 13, 2026: CPI Cools to 3.4%, AI Earnings Keep the Rally Alive

Wall Street heads into Thursday just off a near-record close after a benign July CPI print let the S&P 500 post its first gain since last Friday's all-time high, while AI-linked earnings from CoreWeave, Super Micro and Lumentum powered a technology-led rally. Futures are pointing modestly higher again this morning as traders await July PPI and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, with Applied Materials headlining an after-the-close docket that will test whether the AI capex story still has legs. Oil is sliding again even as the U.S.-Iran standoff drags on, a rare tailwind alongside cooling inflation.

Market setup

Key levels (dealer gamma)

Call walls mark strikes where dealer hedging flows may slow rallies, and put walls mark strikes where hedging may cushion pullbacks. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

Notable earnings

Already reported: AES missed badly before the open at $0.51 vs. a $0.74 estimate (-31% surprise). Melco Resorts (MLCO) beat big at $0.23 vs. a nickel estimate (+360%). Also on the pre-market tape: JD.com and Nu Holdings.

Still ahead before the open: Nu Holdings (NU, est. $0.20 EPS) and JD.com (JD, est. $0.77 EPS), plus a wave of small/mid-caps including Intuitive Machines, GDS Holdings and X-Energy.

After the close: Applied Materials ±6.1% implied move (est. $3.38 EPS) — the key AI-capex bellwether tonight. dLocal ±9.8%. TMC The Metals Company ±6.9%.

Key themes

1. CPI cooled, Fed odds shift. July CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, with core CPI up 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y — both matching consensus. Money markets now price less than a 50% chance of a September Fed hike.
2. AI earnings keep powering tech. CoreWeave surged 18% and Super Micro Computer jumped 9%, while Lumentum soared on AI optical demand, pushing Technology to the top S&P sector.
3. Oil slides despite Hormuz risk. WTI fell about 2.2% to $81.41 even as the U.S.-Iran standoff drags on; Maersk hiked its 2026 EBITDA guidance for the second time this year on Strait of Hormuz-driven trade disruption.
4. Dealer gamma boxes in the rally. SPY's largest dealer gamma sits at the 780 strike with support at 770; QQQ peaks at 730 with support at 700.
5. Flow flipped defensive into the close. Net call premium ran as high as +$154M mid-morning before turning negative into the bell, while net put premium swung to roughly +$66M.

Notable options flow

What to Watch

The next two hours after the open will set the tone: a hot PPI print alongside sticky jobless claims could revive September-hike chatter and pressure the SPY 770-780 gamma band, while a soft PPI would likely extend Wednesday's AI-led leadership. After the close, Applied Materials' results and guidance are the real swing factor for semicap and broader AI capex sentiment heading into Friday, with dLocal and TMC also on the after-hours tape. Watch whether options flow re-confirms Wednesday's early bullishness or extends the late defensive tilt seen into the close.

Sign-off

That's the tape for Thursday, August 13. Check back tomorrow for the next briefing.