Markets Daily: S&P 500 Tops 7,800 as Retail Sales Loom — Aug 14, 2026

S&P 500 Tops 7,800 as Retail Sales Loom — Aug 14, 2026

Futures are barely budging this morning after Thursday's flat PPI reading pushed the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time and knocked September rate-hike odds down toward 35% from 55% a week ago. The next catalyst lands at 8:30am with retail sales and import prices, followed by Michigan sentiment at 10am — a soft batch keeps the record-chasing tape intact, while a hot one could jolt the 10-year off its ~4.65-4.69% perch.

Market setup

Key levels (dealer gamma)

Call walls mark strikes where dealer hedging may slow further upside, and put walls mark strikes where hedging flows may cushion pullbacks. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Index scoreboard

Five things that matter today

1. A fresh record, on cooling inflation. A flat July PPI print reinforced bets the Fed stays on hold in September.
2. Retail sales headline an 8:30am data dump. Consensus calls for retail sales up 0.2-0.3% m/m, with Michigan sentiment (68.5 expected) at 10am.
3. Oil keeps sliding on the Iran conflict. WTI dropped over 2% Thursday and sits near $81.48 as demand concerns offset supply-risk headlines.
4. M&A and earnings dispersion widened. Workday jumped 18% on Silver Lake buyout talk while Cisco Systems fell roughly 8.8% after its print.
5. Options flow still skews bullish, but complacent. Thursday's tape ran $25.7B call premium versus $16.1B put premium market-wide.

Notable earnings

Already reported: Workday soared 18% on buyout talk, Harmonic jumped 9% on a beat-and-raise; Cisco Systems, Coherent and Cerebras all fell after their updates.

Still ahead before the open: A light, small-cap-heavy slate — Sigma Lithium, RLX Technology, Americas Gold & Silver, Digi Power X, Outlook Therapeutics, LanzaTech Global and Milestone Scientific.

After the close: HIVE Blockchain ±11.2%, New Era Energy & Digital ±17.7%, Sidus Space ±26.3%, Streamex Corp ±19.7% — options-implied expected moves.

Notable options flow

What to Watch

Retail sales and Michigan sentiment at 8:30am and 10am ET are the swing factors — a soft print keeps the record run alive, a hot one pressures the 10-year and could hit small caps first. Watch SPY 780 and QQQ 730 as the levels where dealer gamma may cap the next leg higher, and 770/700 as the zones where dip-buyers have shown up recently. Oil's slide continues to be a wildcard given the ongoing Iran conflict, and a thin small-cap earnings slate means single-stock moves, not macro data, may dominate the tape into the close.

Sign-off

Have a good weekend, and see you back here Monday for the next briefing.