Market Briefing, Aug 28 2026: Nvidia's Rally Meets Warsh's Debut Speech

Market Briefing, Friday August 28, 2026

Nvidia's blowout beat-and-raise powered the Nasdaq to its best session since August 4, but futures cooled overnight after Marvell's disappointing margin guidance and caution ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote took some air out of the AI trade. Today hinges almost entirely on that 10am ET speech — his tone on rates sets the frame for every data print through year-end — landing the same hour as a fresh University of Michigan sentiment read.

Market setup

• S&P 500 futures: 7,739.50 (-0.04%)
• Nasdaq 100 futures: 29,600.00 (-0.32%)
• Dow futures: 53,722.00 (+0.19%)
• Russell 2000 futures: 3,023.30 (+0.14%)
• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.68%
• WTI crude: $82.61 (-1.10%)
• Bitcoin: $79,551 (-0.26%)
• Gold: $4,659.10 (-0.11%)

Where the indexes closed Thursday

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~771): call wall 780 (then 775), put wall 760 (then 755). QQQ (spot ~720): call wall 730 (then 725), put wall 700 (then 705). Call walls mark strikes where dealer hedging flows may slow rallies; put walls mark strikes where hedging may cushion dips — these are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Five things that matter today

1. Nvidia's beat-and-raise lit up tech. NVDA jumped 8.7% Thursday after data-center revenue hit a record $89.02B and management guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth near 70%, nearly double the ~44% Street estimate.
2. Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote lands at 10am ET. Fed funds futures price roughly a 64% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September; his tone today could move that number sharply.
3. Marvell's guidance cracked the AI-trade mood. Marvell is down roughly 7.6% premarket after issuing soft gross-margin guidance, with Rubrik falling 8.3% premarket alongside it.
4. Hot inflation keeps yields elevated. Wednesday's PCE data showed prices up 3.7% year-over-year versus a 3.6% forecast, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.68%.
5. Bitcoin pushes back above $80K. BTC extended its rally on a ninth consecutive day of net spot ETF inflows, roughly $242M Thursday alone.

Notable options flow

What to Watch

All eyes are on Kevin Warsh at 10am ET for his first major speech as Fed Chair — expect the sharpest market reaction in the two hours that follow. Also watch the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment read (prelim was 51.0, well below the 54.5 estimate) landing the same hour, and premarket earnings from Frontline, Miniso, Hafnia, NioCorp, Jiayin Group and Nano Labs, all of which carry double-digit options-implied expected moves.

Sign-off

It's a headline-driven Friday heading into a long weekend — position sizing matters more than conviction today. Have a good session.