Markets Hold Records Into Bank Earnings and CPI Week: October 12, 2026

Markets Hold Records Into Bank Earnings and CPI Week: October 12, 2026

Futures are mixed-to-flat Monday morning as traders look past a data-free, Columbus Day-shortened bond session toward a loaded back half of the week. Crude oil is giving back its weekend spike on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire chatter and easing U.S.-Iran tensions, while bitcoin has clawed back above $83,000 after last week's liquidation-driven selloff. The real action starts tomorrow when big bank earnings and Wednesday's CPI print take center stage.

Friday's Close

Market Setup

Dealer Gamma Levels

SPY closed Friday at 778.57, a hair under its 779 call wall, with the next call-side flip at 782.6 and put support at 777, then 773.12. QQQ closed near 751.27, pinned between a 753 call wall (next flip 754.82) and a 751 put wall (next support 747.29). These are options-derived positioning estimates, not guaranteed turning points.

Five Things That Matter Today

1. Earnings season opens tomorrow, and banks lead. Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs all report before Tuesday's open alongside UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson, with options pricing a $35.28 swing for Goldman and a $23.13 swing for UnitedHealth.
2. Middle East risk is back in the oil market. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and fresh tanker attacks briefly pushed Brent toward $105 and WTI above $92 before diplomatic signals pulled crude back to the low $90s.
3. Wall Street closed out a record-setting week. All three major averages rose Friday, capping a five-day win streak even as 10-year yields sat near 24-year highs.
4. CPI Wednesday is the week's real test. Headline CPI last printed 3.4% Y/Y and core 2.4% Y/Y; a hot print would challenge the rate-cut path underpinning the rally.
5. Dealer gamma is pinning the index ETFs. SPY and QQQ both sit just under their respective call walls, and net call premium in the broad tape faded into Friday's close.

Notable Earnings

Already reported: Delta Air Lines missed Friday premarket, $1.72 vs. $1.80 estimated (-4.4% surprise), and cut FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10-$5.60 from $6.50-$7.50 on a roughly $6B fuel-cost headwind. Shares fell as much as 5% premarket before paring the loss to roughly -1.7% to -3.3% by the close.

Still ahead before the open: Nothing material reports today — Q3 bank season effectively opens tomorrow premarket.

After the close: Nothing scheduled tonight. Tomorrow's premarket slate carries the week's real event risk — Goldman Sachs ±$35.28, UnitedHealth ±$23.13, JPMorgan ±$10.03, Domino's ±$18.36, Johnson & Johnson ±$8.17, Citigroup ±$4.53, Wells Fargo ±$3.26, Albertsons ±$0.64.

Notable Options Flow

Congress Corner

• Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar — Sold META, $1,001-$15,000 (9/24/26)
• Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar — Sold GS, $1,001-$15,000 (9/24/26)
• Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar — Sold CSCO, $15,001-$50,000 (9/24/26)
• Rep. Josh Gottheimer — Sold MCD, $1,001-$15,000 (9/25/26)
• Rep. Michael Rulli — Sold MSFT, $1,001-$15,000 (9/28/26)

These are delayed disclosures required by the STOCK Act, not real-time trades.

Social Media Trends

Retail chatter is concentrated in the AI/chip complex and names with catalysts this week: Nvidia, Google, Adobe and Micron lead WallStreetBets mention volume, while Apple is seeing a mention spike tied to supply-chain chatter. AST SpaceMobile is drawing bearish retail commentary after a sharp recent run-up.

What to Watch

The next 72 hours set the tone for the rest of October: Tuesday's bank earnings will test whether credit quality and trading revenue can justify current multiples, and Wednesday's CPI print is the single biggest swing factor for rate-cut expectations and, by extension, the record-high equity tape. Watch whether SPY and QQQ can clear their respective call walls on good news, or whether put-wall support holds on a disappointing print.

Sign-off

Stay nimble into the data. We'll have a full earnings recap and updated gamma levels in tomorrow's briefing.