Market Briefing, Oct 22 2026: Meta Beats, Tesla Cuts Capex, Futures Slide on Oil

Market Briefing, Thursday, October 22, 2026

Wednesday's tech-led gains (XLK +1.67%) are unwinding before the bell. A slate of technology earnings fell short of elevated expectations and escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Tesla cut its spending guidance to about $20 billion and Lam Research guided weak after the close , which outweighed Meta's beat. Meanwhile, Brent crossed $110 after a drone strike on a Saudi oil field. The session hinges on whether the 8:30 AM jobless claims and the heavy pre-market earnings slate can steady sentiment while the 10-year yield sits above 5.1%.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures ( S&P 500 -75.25 0.96% 7,725 )	-1.0%
Nasdaq 100 futures, threatening to erase much of the index's 2.2% gain this week	-1.6% to -1.7%
Dow futures ( Dow -322.00 0.61% 52,737 )	-0.6%
Russell 2000 futures: no verified pre-market quote this morning	n/a
10-year Treasury yield, after the US Treasury 20-year auction cleared at a 5.469% high yield, the highest for that tenor since 1986	5.146% Wed close
WTI crude: rises 2.4% to $99.48/barrel after more Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia	$99.48 (+2.4%)
Bitcoin: early quotes put it around $84,300 , and later prints show it closer to $82K	~$82K–$84K
Gold (December futures): precious metals remain constrained by high yield environments	$4,131

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~765)	Call wall 775 (then 780) · Put wall 760 (then 750)
QQQ (spot ~713)	Call wall 735 (then 740) · Put wall 710 (then 700)

Call walls mark where dealer positioning may slow rallies. Put walls mark where dealer hedging may cushion dips. These levels are estimates of positioning, not guarantees, and they were calculated from Wednesday's option chains, before the overnight drop. SPY's one-month map showed Put Wall 760 (−1.2%), where most of the negative gamma sits, with 750 and 745 behind it . QQQ is trading below its gamma flip levels, where moves can accelerate, and if a wall gives way, hedging adds to the break.

Today's market calendar (ET)

8:30 AM	Jobless claims: 200K est. (prior 199K)
8:30 AM	Continuing claims: 1.72M est. (prior 1.71M)
10:00 AM	Leading Indicators: prior -0.1%
11:00 AM	Kansas City Fed Survey: prior 20

Consensus figures for initial and continuing claims: Initial Jobless Claims are expected at approximately 200,000. The previous reading was 199,000. Continuing Claims are expected around 1.72 million, compared with 1.71 million previously. There is no verified consensus yet for Leading Indicators or the KC Fed survey.

Notable earnings

Already reported: Meta posted $64.6 billion revenue, beating expectations and offering strong Q4 guidance . Its adjusted EPS was $7.40, surpassing forecasts, despite a $9.9 billion charge from a legal settlement , and it announced a two-for-one split. Tesla's operating profit fell 56% year over year and it lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance, causing its stock to first rise and then fall. Spotify reported Q3 revenue of €4.97 billion in the quarter, compared with estimates of €4.98B . Reliance Steel beat with Q3 adj. EPS $8.02 vs. est. $6.66 .

Still ahead before the open: EPS estimates include Lockheed Martin · LMT · 7.52 , Procter & Gamble · PG · 1.88 , Comcast · CMCSA · 0.99 , American Airlines · AAL · -0.33 , Blackstone · BX · 1.29 , Valero Energy · VLO · 20.90 and Honeywell · HON · 2.17 . Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, Dow, Nokia and Tractor Supply also report. CBRE is priced for a 10.16% implied move.

After the close: Options-implied moves are Bloom Energy ±11.1%, Deckers ±10.6%, Western Digital ±8.0% and Newmont ±4.5%. For Western Digital, Wall Street expects $4.07 in earnings per share on $4.13 billion in revenue . For Newmont, analysts expect $2.11 in earnings per share on $6.32 billion in revenue . Bloom's implied move varies by source, and options traders expect a 10.7% move in BE stock after Q3 earnings on another read.

Congress corner

• Rep. Michael Rulli (R-OH): sold GOOGL, $50K–$100K, traded Oct 16, 2026
• Rep. Michael Rulli (R-OH): sold WSBC, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 16, 2026
• Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA): bought ADI, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 8, 2026
• Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK): sold NEE, $15K–$50K, traded Oct 2, 2026
• Rep. Laurel Lee (R-FL), spouse: bought NOK, $15K–$50K, traded Sep 18, 2026. Nokia reports this morning.

These are delayed STOCK Act disclosures, not real-time trades. Trades are due within 45 days, but some are filed months or even years later, so check each trade date.

Social-media trends

Retail chatter is focused on SPY, QQQ, CoreWeave, Micron, SpaceX (SPCX), Tesla and Meta. In the last day, mentions of SpaceX have surged by an impressive 67% , and options flow shows net call premium of $27.0M in SPCX. In Tesla, bears focus on valuation, heavy AI and robotics investment, and delayed Optimus milestones, while bulls emphasize cash generation . In Meta, traders are split between strong ad numbers and worries about negative free cash flow, heavy investment, and the new non-voting share structure . META ($37.5M) and TSLA ($37.1M) led net call premium. Flow was net negative in MU (-$26.7M) and GOOGL (-$26.2M). On the index side, QQQ traders are debating whether heavy AI spending will deliver returns and framed the move as a sell-the-news reaction.

What matters today

1. Meta and Tesla Split on AI Spending. Meta reported earnings of $3.83 per share, above Wall Street's estimate of $3.57, and revenue of $64.6 billion, above the $63.34 billion forecast . It also now guides 2026 capex to a range of $135 billion to $145 billion, up from a prior lower-end figure of $130 billion . Tesla went the other way. It cut the full-year capital expenditure forecast to approximately $20 billion from a previous guidance of more than $25 billion , and the stock was sliding 5.0% in pre-open trading today to reach $367.20 . META ($37.5M net) and TSLA ($37.1M net) led yesterday's call-side options flow. Trading impact: expect wide opening gaps in both names, so check your copy trading position sizes before the bell.
2. Chip Stocks Fall Despite Lam's Beat. Lam posted adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share on revenue of $8.22 billion, compared with analyst forecasts of $2.18 a share and $8.13 billion . Even so, the stock fell 7.38% to $241.57 in after-hours trading , with investors pointing to the narrow beat, guidance close to consensus with a wide range, supply limits and an expected sharp drop in China's share of revenue . Tech led yesterday's sectors (XLK +1.67%), but options flow already leaned bearish on chips: MU at -$26.7M net, SOXX at -$8.8M and INTC at -$8.1M, against SNDK at +$15.4M. Trading impact: yesterday's semiconductor gains are the most likely to reverse at the open.
3. Oil Tops $110 After Saudi Attacks. Brent crude increased by 2.4 percent to USD 111.40 per barrel as of 6 a.m. GMT, while WTI rose 2.22 percent to USD 99.30 per barrel . The move followed a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, which produces about one million barrels of crude a day , although the Saudi Energy Ministry said operations were unaffected . Asia sold off overnight, with the Kospi down 3.8% and the Hang Seng down 3.0% . Trading impact: energy stocks and oil headlines could move against the tech sell-off all session.
4. Light Data Day Before the Fed. Weekly jobless claims come out at 8:30 AM ET (prior 199,000), followed by Leading Indicators at 10:00 (prior -0.1%) and the Kansas City Fed survey at 11:00 (prior 20). The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of next week's October 27–28 FOMC meeting , and Treasury holds a $26bn 5-year TIPS auction . The flash PMIs (priors 57 and 58.7) and the final University of Michigan survey (prior 48.1) follow on Friday. Trading impact: a surprise in claims is the only scheduled data likely to move stocks before the open.
5. Heavy Earnings Day and Fund Selling. 27 S&P 500 companies report today, including Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific, Western Digital, Blackstone, Valero Energy, Lockheed Martin, Newmont and Comcast . BofA says clients sold US equities last week (-$9.1B), led by institutions in their 10th-biggest selling week in BofA's data since 2008 , as mutual funds sell losing positions for taxes before their October 31 fiscal year-ends. Yesterday's options flow showed $140.5M of net call premium against -$53.3M of net put premium. Alphabet was the exception, with GOOGL at -$26.2M and GOOG at -$18.0M. Dealer gamma positioning data is unavailable today. Trading impact: results from individual companies are likely to drive moves more than the broad market.

Options flow

META $800 C 10/23: the most popular contract to buy on Wednesday, a lottery-style call that needs Meta to rally 14% into the weekend after last night's report.	$1.40/contract, most bought
TSLA $400 C 10/23: a call sweep ahead of earnings. 16,076 contracts were open at the strike beforehand, and 24,476 traded on the day .	$178.6K neutral sweep
ORCL $140 C 10/30: a call sweep flagged bearish, with 4.2K contracts traded against 22.5K open interest .	$137.0K bearish sweep
AAPL $330 P 11/20: November downside protection, split into 90 different trades to become filled .	$134.4K bearish sweep
NVDA $220 P 11/20: a November put sweep with 3.0K traded into 29.3K open interest , as chip flow tilted defensive.	$61.7K neutral sweep
SNDK $1380 C 10/23: new Friday-expiry upside, with 1.7K contracts against just 168 open . SNDK took in $15.4M in net premium.	$34.4K bullish block

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.