Market Briefing, Oct 23 2026: AI Funding Fears Weigh on Chips as Oil Jumps on Iran Report

Market Briefing, Friday, October 23, 2026

Futures are drifting lower after a sharp selloff in AI-linked stocks over concerns about the sector's massive funding requirements . Oil spiked and stocks and yields sagged after a report that the U.S. and Israel might resume attacks on Iran next month , and Meta's heavy spending outlook and chip worries also hurt. Options flow from yesterday's session leaned heavily bearish in META, SPCX, SMH, MU, NVDA and AMD. Today depends on the 9:45 flash PMIs, the 10:00 Michigan final reading and how American Express's print is received, all with the Fed's meeting, followed by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index coming next week.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures	-0.14%
Nasdaq 100 futures	-0.03%
Dow futures	-0.30%
Russell 2000 futures	-0.23%
10-year Treasury yield (near a one-month low after Thursday's haven bid)	5.03%
WTI crude	$100.90 (+1.4%)
Bitcoin	$81,690 (-3.43%)
Gold (spot, after hitting fresh three-month lows at $3,986 )	$4,024

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~764)	Unavailable today
QQQ (spot ~704)	Unavailable today

We couldn't get verified, current dealer positioning for this morning, so we're not printing walls rather than guessing. When we have the data, call walls show where dealer hedging may slow a rally and put walls show where hedging may cushion a dip. They're estimates of positioning, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

8:30 AM — American Express earnings call	Call 8:30
9:45 AM — US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct); our prior reading is 57	Est. 55.5
9:45 AM — US Flash Services PMI (Oct); our prior reading is 58.7	Est. 58.0
9:30 AM — SLB earnings call	EPS est. $0.62
10:00 AM — University of Michigan final consumer sentiment (Oct), including inflation expectations; we found no consensus	Prior 48.1

Notable earnings

Already reported: American Express (AXP) said third-quarter consolidated total revenues net of interest expense were $20.1 billion, up 9 percent year-over-year , roughly in line with the $20.12B estimate. Its GAAP profit of $5.42 per share was 20.4% above analysts' consensus estimates. The third-quarter net write-off rate was 1.8 percent, down from 1.9 percent a year ago. In the prior evening's reports, Deckers Brands (DECK) reported earnings of $2.03 per share on revenue of $1.48 billion against $1.82 per share on revenue of $1.51 billion expected. Sallie Mae (SLM) reported a loss of $0.19 per share . Premarket, gold miner Newmont fell 1.5% after reporting quarterly results and warning that unit costs are expected to trend higher in 2027.

Still ahead before the open: SLB (EPS est. $0.62), Infosys (INFY, $0.21), First Citizens (FCNCA, $46.61) and Rogers (RCI, $0.86), per consensus . Also on the slate: Autoliv (ALV, est. $2.23), Rithm Capital (RITM, $0.50), Flagstar (FLG, $0.07), Gentex (GNTX, $0.50) and First Hawaiian (FHB, $0.59) , along with Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH).

After the close: It's a thin Friday slate: TowneBank (TOWN, est. $0.83) and Columbia Financial (CLBK, est. $0.15) , plus RCBC . We couldn't find options-implied expected moves for any of these small-cap banks today, so none are listed.

Congress corner

• Rep. Rick Larsen (D): buy WSM, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 8; sell HD, $1K–$15K, Oct 8; buy ADI, $1K–$15K, Oct 8
• Rep. Kevin Hern (R): sell NEE, $15K–$50K, traded Oct 2
• Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D): buy BHE, $15K–$50K, traded Oct 1
• Rep. Ro Khanna (D): sell SNPS, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 1 , plus small sales of DASH, ITW and LVS the same day
• Rep. Michael A. Rulli (R): sell WFC, $1,001–$15,000, traded Sep 3

These are delayed STOCK Act disclosures, not real-time trades. Trades are due within 45 days, but some are filed months or even years later, so check each trade date.

Social-media trends

Retail sentiment is defensive. Sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, trended in 'extremely bearish' territory over the past day. GOOGL is the top trending ticker, and traders [are] focused on whether heavy AI and data-center spending will produce enough growth and returns ahead of next week's report. MRNA, SOXL and Bloom Energy (BE) are also crowded, with BE dropping as much as 2% premarket after plunging nearly 9% on Thursday . SpaceX (SPCX) chatter keeps building: mentions of SpaceX have surged by an impressive 67% . Metals are drawing traffic too, with the silver ETF in focus among retail traders amid a sharp selloff . Nokia, Walmart and Schwab round out the trending list.

What matters today

1. Worries over AI funding hit chips hard. Meta drove Thursday's selloff. The company disclosed lease agreements and other non-cancelable AI commitments totaling $825 billion, up from $700 billion in July. Its third-quarter free cash flow also swung to a $2.1 billion deficit. AMD fell 8.1% and Nvidia 4.4%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.7%, its worst decline since June. Options flow matched the selling: net premium was -$151.5M in META, -$105.3M in SMH, -$89.9M in MU, -$87.7M in NVDA and -$75.4M in AMD. One premarket check showed Meta, Nvidia and AMD recovering after Thursday's sell-off . Trading impact: watch whether the early bounce in semis holds or fades once cash trading opens at 9:30.
2. Money moved into defensive sectors. Staples (XLP) led yesterday at +3.31% and utilities (XLU) gained +2.07%. Tech (XLK) fell -3.29% and communication services (XLC) lost -1.42%. Investors dumped high-growth communication services and technology stocks and flocked to the safety of defensive sectors and safe-haven U.S. Treasuries. Trading impact: a second straight day of staples and utilities leading would show the move away from tech is continuing, not just a one-day flinch.
3. Brent oil above $113 on Middle East risk. Brent crude settled at $113.17 a barrel, up $4.35 (4.00%), its highest level since May. The jump came after fresh attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabian energy facilities and airports , along with a report that the U.S. and Israel plan renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms . U.S. oil is up 72% in 2026 and Brent is up 83%. Oil was rising again in early Asia trading. Trading impact: crude headlines over the weekend may make traders less willing to hold risk into Friday's close.
4. Treasury yields fall, PMIs due at 9:45. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 19.3 basis points to 4.953%, its largest daily drop since March 10, 2023. Futures now price a 7.2% chance of a rate hike of 25 basis points or more, down from 27.7% a week earlier and 55.4% a month ago. The Fed meets October 27–28. The flash Services PMI (prior 58.7) and Manufacturing PMI (prior 57) come out at 9:45 AM ET, followed by final U. Michigan sentiment (prior 48.1) at 10:00 AM ET. One-year inflation expectations in that survey are forecast at 4.7%. Dealer positioning data is unavailable today. Trading impact: strong PMIs or higher inflation expectations could quickly undo the bond rally and put a rate hike back on the table.
5. Earnings beats aren't lifting stocks. Western Digital was 0.90% lower in premarket trading despite beating estimates, with quarterly earnings of $4.64 per share on $4.38 billion in revenue versus $4.07 and $4.13 billion expected. Deckers dropped 7% after revenue of $1.48 billion missed the $1.51 billion estimate. Before the open, American Express reported third-quarter revenue of $20.1 billion, up 9 percent from a year ago . Its GAAP profit of $5.42 per share was 20.4% above consensus. Options flow in BAC also leaned bullish at +$19.7M net premium. Trading impact: beat-and-sell reactions in AI hardware stocks, set against strength in financials, will show where investors want to be heading into next week's Microsoft and Alphabet reports.

Options flow

PSIX $45 P 11/20 — volume of 2,591 against open interest of 84 means most of this is new positioning . The stock is up $4.28 to $47.57 .	2,591 @ $3.70 ask-side
QQQ $696 P 10/30 — open interest in this strike jumped after Thursday's deterioration in the broader market .	+1,386% open int.
META net flow, all contracts — the largest net-bearish options flow of the session, after earnings left the stock -6.98% because Q3 free cash flow was a $2.12B deficit .	-$151.5M net
MU net flow, all contracts — on wider screens, MU grew from $158.35 million to $260.71 million in bearish-classified premium .	-$89.9M net
KLAC net flow, all contracts — one of the few chip names with net-bullish flow. It also made the $1M+ bullish list at $31.95M .	+$9.3M net
Data note — we don't have strike-level prints or fill side for the net-flow names today. Those rows show net premium across all of each name's contracts.	Strikes n/a

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.