Market Briefing, Nov 3 2026: Midterm Day Keeps Stocks Cautious as Apple and AMD Weigh

Market Briefing, Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Futures are split on Election Day. Dow futures are falling after mixed earnings and guidance from Apple overnight. The shares are down roughly 4% after the company warned that rising memory costs would squeeze gross margins. Nasdaq 100 futures are pointing to a mild rebound after the index entered a technical correction. Monday's session ended defensive. Energy (-3.96%) and tech (-2.95%) were the weakest sectors, and net put premium of $221.6M outweighed net call premium of -$46.3M. Today hinges on 10:00 AM JOLTS, AMD after the close and midterm results tonight, while Wall Street parses mixed signals regarding a potential ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures	7,562 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 100 futures	28,185 (+0.21%)
Dow futures	51,691 (-0.85%)
Russell 2000 futures	2,812 (-0.20%)
10-year Treasury yield	4.89% (-3.5 bp)
WTI crude: modest bounce after a sharp drop on Iran diplomacy	$97.25 (+0.82%)
Bitcoin	~$76,954
Gold	$3,915.50 (-1.36%)

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~759)	Unavailable today
QQQ (spot ~695)	Unavailable today

We have no current call-wall or put-wall levels this morning, so we are leaving them out rather than guessing. When levels are available, call walls mark where dealer positioning may slow rallies and put walls mark where hedging may cushion dips. They are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

10:00 AM	JOLTS · fc 7.1M (prior 7.1M)
10:00 AM	Factory Orders · fc 1.5% (prior 0.1%)
10:00 AM	Pfizer earnings call
5:00 PM	AMD call · EPS fc $1.68
Evening	Midterm election results

Notable earnings

Already reported: Pfizer beat on both lines. Adjusted earnings were 87 cents per share against a 72-cent average estimate , and revenue was $16.58 billion versus the $16.13 billion expected. Pfizer guided full-year EPS to $2.95–$3.05 on revenue of $62–$64 billion. Apple (last night) is lower after a strong quarterly report was overshadowed by guidance for lower gross margins as memory costs rise. Palantir is under pressure because investors were disappointed by its contract growth . BWX Technologies reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.26 vs. $1.19 estimated (beat) but revenue of $953M vs. $970.4M estimated (miss).

Still ahead before the open: Shopify, Eaton, Fiserv, DigitalOcean, Marathon Petroleum, Dynatrace, Yum, Zebra and Apollo. Upstart also reports this morning, and its shares are under pressure ahead of earnings after a Bank of America downgrade.

After the close (options-implied expected moves): AMD ±4.2% · Astera Labs ±5.8% · Arista ±3.3% · Block ±2.3% · Booking ±2.0% · Amgen ±1.6% . Supermicro also reports tonight.

Congress corner

• Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX): sold AAPL, $250,001–$500,000 (spouse), Oct 2
• Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX): sold MSFT, $250,001–$500,000 (spouse), Oct 2
• Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX): sold AMZN, $15,001–$50,000, Oct 27
• Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA): bought WSM, $1,001–$15,000, Oct 8
• Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA): bought ADI, $1,001–$15,000, Oct 8
• Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK): sold NEE, $15,001–$50,000, Oct 2

These trades were disclosed late, not in real time. Congress members have 45 days to report trades after they occur , so the dates above are when each trade happened, often weeks before it was filed. Dollar amounts are the reported ranges, not exact values.

Social-media trends

Retail chatter is focused on last night's tech losers. On PLTR, traders are split between viewing the pullback as disconnected from business momentum and arguing that a lofty valuation left little room for anything short of a blowout. ORCL is also busy: its discounted share sale alongside a bond offering to fund its AI buildout is the main focus. SHOP is drawing attention ahead of its earnings report . On TSLA, retail sentiment turned 'extremely bearish' from 'bearish' amid a 476% surge in 24-hour message volumes , tied to talk of a SpaceX merger vote. That matches our options data, where SPCX led the tickers driving net premium at -$59.5M.

What matters today

1. Midterm Day Keeps Risk on Hold. US stock futures struggled for direction as investors held back from adding risk with voting about to get underway in the midterm elections. Options price about 0.86% for today and 1.85% into 6 November . Results become clearer from November 4, although close races may take several days to call. Trading impact: expect a cautious session today, with the bigger repricing likely overnight and into Wednesday as results come in.
2. Apple's Memory Squeeze Hits AI Sentiment. Apple projected gross margin of 45% to 46%, below the roughly 46.9% Wall Street had expected, and said services growth would decelerate to 8% to 9% . Apple was last trading 3.8% lower, and Palantir was down 7.8% in premarket trading , with Palantir's drop coming on a slowdown in U.S. commercial total contract value bookings growth . This follows a -2.95% XLK session, and options flow had already leaned bearish on AAPL (net -$35.1M) and MU (net -$47.3M). Trading impact: memory costs are now hurting device makers, so watch for spillover into hardware and semis at the open.
3. AMD Reports After the Close. Analysts expect earnings of $1.94 per share on $13.08 billion in revenue , and investor focus will center on data center growth sustainability, gross margin maintenance around 56%, and fourth-quarter guidance . AMD fell 10.88% after Intel warned of a deeper PC slowdown, dragging chip stocks lower. Options flow is bearish on both names: AMD net -$29.6M and INTC net -$35.4M. Trading impact: chip moves after hours could collide with election headlines, so expect a gappy setup for Wednesday's open.
4. Oil Swings Between Peace Talks and Strikes. Brent settled 7.63 percent lower at $104.77 Monday on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy, and XLE was the worst sector at -3.96%. This morning, oil prices climbed after the U.S. reportedly struck Iran's Qeshm Island late Monday , with Brent crude up 1.75% at $106.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was up 1.7% to $98.10 . Trading impact: any Iran headline could swing energy stocks hard in either direction during the session.
5. Hedging Demand and a 10 AM Data Check. In options flow, net put premium was $221.6M against -$46.3M net call premium, and SPY (net $58.5M) and QQQ (net $26.3M) were the main index flows. Dealer positioning data is unavailable today. JOLTS (forecast 7.1M, prior 7.1M) and Factory Orders (forecast 1.5%, prior 0.1%) come out at 10:00 AM ET, ahead of Friday's jobs report (forecast 55K, prior 29K). Trading impact: with this much protection already bought, a surprise in the data could move markets more than usual on a quiet election day.

Options flow

RIOT $18 C 1/15 These January 2027 calls were Monday's biggest single print in tech, with 5.0K contracts traded against 1.2K open interest .	$360.0K block, bullish
TER $270 P 11/6 Puts expiring this week were swept on a day when tech was the second-worst sector, with 412 contracts traded against 573 open interest .	$205.5K sweep, bearish
NCLH $20 C 1/15 These January 2027 calls traded as consumer discretionary led all sectors. Open interest at this strike was 14,982 contracts going in, and 2,311 changed hands .	$189.4K sweep, bullish
AMZN $205 P 12/18 December puts were swept even as consumer discretionary names rallied. That compares with 14.5K open interest at this strike .	$106.1K sweep, bearish
INTC $65 C 11/6 499 contracts went through, split into 4 separate fills . INTC was among the heaviest names pulling the tide down, at -$35.4M net.	$57.3K sweep, bearish
AAPL $330 P 11/4 These puts expire tomorrow, with 14.1K traded against 5.4K open interest . AAPL net premium was -$35.1M.	$56.2K sweep, bearish

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.