Market Briefing, Nov 4 2026: Futures Reverse After Democrats Sweep Congress, AMD Beats

Market Briefing, Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Overnight trading swung hard in both directions. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 2% as early results pointed to a Democratic win. Then US equity index futures rallied, reversing earlier losses, after the Democrats swept to power in Congress and President Donald Trump said he would accept the results . In the prior session tech (XLK +1.31%) and communication services (XLC +1.18%) led, while staples (XLP −2.07%) and materials (XLB −2.01%) lagged. Today's session depends on whether the rebound holds through the 10:00 AM ISM services report and the chip and ad-tech earnings due after the close.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures (as of about 7:14 AM ET, initially down sharply overnight )	+0.9%
Nasdaq 100 futures ( up 929.75 points off their overnight lows )	+0.5%
Dow futures	+803 pts (+1.5%)
Russell 2000 futures (no reliable pre-market quote available this morning)	n/a
10-year Treasury yield (falling)	4.92%
WTI crude (Brent $102.82; investors monitored efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran )	$95.83 (−0.27%)
Bitcoin (recovering after it briefly plunged to a multi-month low of $75,728.70 earlier today )	~$77,660
Gold (spot): sources disagree. One report had spot gold above $4,000 per ounce during the Asian session, supported by a weaker US dollar , while another quoted around $3,923.91 this morning	~$3,920–4,000

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~753)	Call wall 760 · Put wall 750
QQQ (spot ~684)	Call wall 700 · Put wall 680

Call walls mark where dealer positioning may slow rallies. Put walls mark where dealer hedging may cushion dips. Second-tier walls aren't available today. Both SPY and QQQ show Net GEX -$10.78B and -$4.87B, which means dealers are net short gamma and price swings can be larger than usual. Actual dealer inventory isn't directly observable , so treat these levels as positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

8:15 AM	ADP Employment · prior 90K
8:30 AM	Trade Balance · fc −$107.8B (prior −$105.6B)
9:45 AM	US Services PMI · prior 58.8
10:00 AM	ISM Services PMI · fc 54.6 (prior 54.9)

Notable earnings

Already reported: AMD shares were surging 5.73% in premarket trading after the chipmaker beat Wall Street's third-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts . McDonald's reported EPS of $3.57 adjusted vs. $3.38 expected; revenue of $7.16 billion vs. $7.29 billion expected , and shares rose more than 2% in premarket trading . Novo Nordisk was up premarket after its CEO said he does not expect major changes to the company's business following the Democrats' win.

Still ahead before the open: Uber has its conference call at 8:00 AM. Consensus calls for earnings of 94 cents per share, while revenue is expected to rise 9.4% to $14.74 billion , and options imply about a 7.0% move. Datadog also holds its call at 8:00 AM, with options implying about 14.4%. CVS is expected at EPS estimate 1.67 .

After the close: AppLovin ±16.5% , with consensus at $4.04 in earnings per share on $2.08 billion in revenue . Qualcomm ±8.3% , with consensus at $2.16 in earnings per share on $10.12 billion in revenue . Another options read on Qualcomm puts the move at about a 9.59% move in either direction . Also reporting: AMC Entertainment ±12.5% and Sunrun ±16.6% . Arm, Coherent, Fastly, DoorDash, McKesson and MetLife also report tonight; no options-implied moves were available for them.

Congress corner

• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Sell, AMGN, $15,001 to $50,000, made October 15, 2026 , filed Nov 3.
• Rep. John McGuire (R-VA), spouse: Buy, MU, $1K–$15K each on 24 Sept 2026 , Sept 25 and Oct 1, 2026.
• Rep. John McGuire (R-VA), spouse: Sell, AVGO, $1K–$15K, Sept 24, 2026.
• Rep. Thomas Kean Jr (R-NJ): Sell, JNJ, $1K–$15K, Sept 30, 2026. Sell, ABT, $1K–$15K, Sept 17, 2026.
• Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV), spouse: Sell, HONA, under $1K, Sept 29, 2026.

These are delayed disclosures, not real-time trades. Members must publicly disclose stock trades within 45 days of each transaction , and amounts are reported as ranges.

Social-media trends

Retail chatter is mostly about the election. DJT dropped as much as 7.2% in pre-market trade and was the top trending ticker on Stocktwits . SPCX and TSLA are also trending, and traders are speculating that a political shift could bring greater scrutiny of Musk and complicate a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger . In AI names, NVDA, MU and SOXL are seeing heavy debate over whether a Democratic Congress could tighten data-center rules. AMD has the bullish side of the conversation after its beat, and it drew $43.8M in net options premium yesterday. PLTR saw −$46.2M in net premium. Retail sentiment surrounding NVO on Stocktwits turned 'bullish' from 'neutral' , while sentiment around SPY continued to trend in 'bearish' territory .

What matters today

1. Futures Reverse After the Blue Sweep. Democrats won both the House and the Senate, and futures fully recovered from a sharp overnight drop. S&P 500 contracts reversed a knee-jerk decline of 1.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures erased a drop that had reached 2.4%. Around 7:14 AM ET, Dow futures were up 803 points, or 1.5%, S&P 500 futures were 0.9% higher and Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.5% . The rebound came after President Trump said he would accept the results, which eased uncertainty and brought dip buyers back . Trading impact: VIX futures climbed above 20 overnight, so expect wide opening ranges while the market tests whether the reversal holds.
2. AMD Leads a Strong Night for Chip Earnings. AMD's third-quarter revenue grew 45% year over year to a record $13.4 billion . Data Center revenue jumped 97% to $8.5 billion , and the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, or roughly 66% growth . AI hardware peers also gained after hours: Arista rose 14.19% and Super Micro rose 8.00% on revenue of $19.9B and higher guidance . Not every chip report was strong, though, as Skyworks fell 15.11% on weak Q1 guidance . Trading impact: AMD already shows +$43.8M in net premium, so semis and AI hardware should draw most of the opening volume.
3. Gridlock Pushes Yields and the Dollar Lower. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.906% in early trading. The dollar index dropped 0.37% to 101.34 , and gold futures rose 2.9% to $4,054.60 . Rate pricing also moved: the odds of a 25bps Fed hike in December are around 77%, down from 84% a week ago . Trading impact: lower yields support rate-sensitive and growth names, but hike odds that high leave every data release able to move markets.
4. A Busy Data and Earnings Schedule Today. ADP payrolls are due at 8:15 AM ET (prior 90K). The trade balance follows at 8:30 (forecast -$107.8B vs. -$105.6B prior), then ISM Services at 10:00 (forecast 54.6 vs. 54.9 prior). These lead into Friday's jobs report, where the forecast is 55K. Uber, McDonald's, CVS Health, Novo Nordisk, Kraft Heinz and GlobalFoundries report before the open , and Qualcomm, DoorDash, AppLovin, Figma, McKesson, Allstate and MetLife report after the close . Trading impact: the 8:15 and 10:00 releases can swing yields, and copy trading signals around those times may fill at quicker, wider prices.
5. Sector Moves After the Election. Premarket, renewable energy and healthcare stocks gained on hopes for a shift in U.S. policy, while defense stocks fell . Tesla and SpaceX slid after Democrats won the Senate and governor's races in Texas. In yesterday's session, XLK (+1.31%) led and XLP (-2.07%) and XLB (-2.01%) lagged. Options flow showed -$188.5M in net put premium against -$73.1M in net call premium, with PLTR (-$46.2M) and AAPL (-$37.8M) the largest negative names. Dealer positioning data is unavailable today. Trading impact: expect sharp sector swings, with the election winners and losers likely to move very differently from the index.

Options flow

SPY: the biggest positive net premium on the tape, even though overall call and put tide both came in net negative.	+$51.6M net
PLTR: the largest negative net premium after earnings, with shares down 2.39% on above-average volume despite a guidance raise.	-$46.2M net
AMD: leading the semiconductor inflows while tech topped the sector board at +1.31%.	+$43.8M net
AAPL: the heaviest net outflow among megacaps, with NVDA also negative at -$21.0M.	-$37.8M net
ORCL: inflows came alongside the stock's +6.67% high-volume move.	+$19.7M net
Strike, expiry and fill-side details for individual contracts aren't available today. The figures above are net premium per ticker.	n/a

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.