Market Briefing, Nov 5 2026: Dow Jumps 3% as Chip Stocks Slide After Midterm Sweep

Market Briefing, Thursday, November 5, 2026

The trade sparked by the midterms is in its second day. Previously unfavored markets and economically sensitive stocks are outperforming at the expense of chipmakers . Behind that is concern that the Democrats' election sweep will lead to tighter US data center regulation and hit demand . Weak results from Qualcomm and Arm added to the pressure on chips. Oil prices and Treasury yields fell, offering some upward support to stocks. Today depends on three things: whether the shift into cyclicals holds once the cash session opens, the 8:30 jobless claims number before Friday's jobs report, and an after-close lineup that includes Cloudflare, Airbnb and IREN.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures	7,735.75 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 100 futures	28,428.75 (−0.48%)
Dow futures	53,828 (+0.61%)
Russell 2000 futures	2,880.70 (+0.52%)
10-year Treasury yield	4.89% (−5.8 bp)
WTI crude (the overnight dip came after a selloff of more than 8% on Wednesday)	$86.92 (−1.36%)
Bitcoin (as of 6 a.m. ET, change vs. Wednesday morning)	$80,221 (+2.16%)
Gold	$4,138.90 (+1.62%)

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~763)	Call wall 770 (then 800) · Put wall 760 (then 750)
QQQ (spot ~688)	Call wall 700 · Put wall 680

Call walls mark where dealer positioning may slow rallies. Put walls mark where dealer hedging may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees. The SPY secondary levels come from longer-dated open interest. No reliable secondary QQQ walls were available today. QQQ remains in negative gamma, with its gamma flip near 719 , so dealer hedging can make moves bigger in either direction.

Today's market calendar (ET)

8:30 AM	Jobless claims: 198K exp. (prior 194K)
8:50 AM	Fed's Hammack speaks
After 4:00 PM	Earnings: NET, ABNB, IREN
Fri 8:30 AM (look-ahead: October jobs report; unemployment rate expected at 4.2%, unchanged)	Payrolls: 55K exp. (prior 29K)

Notable earnings

Already reported: Cigna (CI) beat and raised guidance. It earned $7.98 per share on revenue of $73.68 billion, against a consensus of $7.46 on $73.53 billion. Oscar Health (OSCR) also raised guidance after earning $0.49 per share on revenue of $5.14 billion, when analysts expected a loss of $0.11 on $4.72 billion. Celsius (CELH) was over 10% higher in premarket trading . Its adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.34 estimate, and revenue of $847.2 million topped the $800.03 million estimate. From last night, Qualcomm dropped 10.1% in premarket trading after falling short of estimates for fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales . Arm fell about 3% after hours on weak guidance.

Still ahead before the open: These are still listed for before the bell, and some results may come out as you read. ConocoPhillips, Sony, Toyota, Unity Software, Shake Shack, Parker-Hannifin, Canadian Natural Resources and Duke Energy , plus Cardinal Health and Hertz. For ConocoPhillips, the consensus is $2.97 EPS on $18.45B in revenue .

After the close: Options-implied expected moves are IREN ±18.45%, Opendoor ±18.42%, Cloudflare ±13.29%, IonQ ±11.59%, DraftKings ±8.73% and Airbnb ±6.73% . For IREN, analysts expect a 67 cent per share loss on $223.19 million in revenue. Also reporting tonight: Affirm, Atlassian, Kratos and Applied Optoelectronics , along with Microchip, Monster Beverage, EOG Resources and Devon Energy .

Congress corner

• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Sell AMGN, $15,001–$50,000, traded Oct 15, 2026
• Rep. John McGuire (R): Buy MU, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 1, 2026 (more MU buys on Sep 24 and Sep 25)
• Rep. John McGuire (R): Partial sell AVGO, $1K–$15K, traded Sep 24, 2026
• Rep. Thomas Kean (R): Partial sell JNJ, $1K–$15K, traded Sep 30, 2026
• Rep. Thomas Kean (R): Buy ESAB, $1K–$15K, traded Sep 29, 2026

These are delayed disclosures, not real-time trades. Members file within 45 days of any stock trade , so these positions may have changed since.

Social-media trends

Tesla is drawing the most retail chatter right now, and much of it is negative. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA slipped further to 'extremely bearish' amid a 107% surge in 24-hour message volumes , as posters argue the SpaceX merger is less likely after the Democratic sweep. AMD is still the most-discussed name on Reddit after earnings, with mentions up 323% in the last 24 hours . Trump Media fell to 'extremely bearish' territory, accompanied by chatter at 'high' levels after the election results. Hertz, which reports this morning, saw meme-stock mentions jump 120.4% . Options flow tells a similar story about the rotation. Net call premium led net put premium $74.0M to $17.0M, with heavy call buying in MSFT and AMZN and net put flow in NVDA, ORCL and TSLA.

What matters today

1. The Election Rally Has a Breadth Problem. During Wednesday's regular session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 3.03%, gaining 1,569 points to reach a two-month high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 1.58% and 1.44%, respectively. Under the surface, the average stock lost ground: 52 of the 74 large stocks tracked by one desk fell, and only 29.7% sit above their 50-day average. The split carried into this morning. As of 6:41 ET, Nasdaq futures were down 145 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures were up 12 points, or 0.2%, and Dow futures were up 326 points, or 0.6%. Trading impact: index-level gains can hide real damage in single names, so check how each ticker is moving instead of relying on the headline averages.
2. Chip Earnings Spread the AI Selloff Worldwide. Underwhelming earnings and guidance from chipmakers Arm and Qualcomm raised more doubts over the artificial intelligence trade . Qualcomm tumbled by more than 10% before the opening bell on disappointing smartphone chip revenue. Asian markets followed: the Kospi fell about 4.8% and SK Hynix lost about 9% . The chip index was already down, having lost 3.1% to a six-month low on Wednesday. Options flow agrees, with net premium of -$56.5M in NVDA, -$49.9M in ORCL, -$34.4M in MRVL and -$27.0M in INTC. Trading impact: expect wider opening ranges and heavier gap risk in semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names.
3. Oil's 8% Drop Is Moving Sectors. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell more than 8% to settle at $88.12 a barrel. Hopes of US–Iran diplomacy sent oil sharply lower, and the dollar and yields slid. Money moved toward value stocks, with banks, healthcare, and staples leading the way . Policy-sensitive groups sold off: Vertiv down 6.8%, GE Vernova down 6.3% , and Lockheed off 4.1% and RTX off 3.2%. Trading impact: energy, defense and data-center power names are trading on macro headlines more than their own fundamentals right now.
4. Jobless Claims Today, Payrolls Friday. Weekly jobless claims come out at 8:30 AM ET, forecast at 198K against 194K prior, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at 8:50 AM ET. Friday's October payrolls are forecast at 55K, up from 29K prior, with unemployment expected to stay at 4.2%. The stakes are higher because the market is still pricing in a strong chance of another 25-basis-point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December. Trading impact: both 8:30 releases can move rates and futures fast, so expect wider spreads and more slippage around them.
5. Options Flow Favors a Few Megacaps. Net call premium of $74.0M outweighed $17.0M in net put premium. The bullish money was concentrated in MSFT (net $79.5M), QQQ ($66.4M) and AMZN ($63.9M), after Microsoft (6.82%) was one of the Dow's top gainers. After the close, AppLovin surged almost 24% after delivering better-than-expected results and issuing guidance that beat estimates. Dealer gamma positioning data is unavailable today. Trading impact: options money is betting on individual names rather than the whole tech sector, so expect MSFT, AMZN and NVDA to move differently from each other.

Options flow

MSFT was the biggest single driver of the call-leaning market tide in the prior session.	+$79.5M net premium
QQQ pulled in heavy index call premium, even though money was moving out of tech elsewhere.	+$66.4M net premium
AMZN drew strong call flow while consumer discretionary led every other sector.	+$63.9M net premium
NVDA had the largest put-leaning flow on the board, matching the selling in chips seen across MRVL and INTC.	-$56.5M net premium
ORCL was second only to NVDA for put-leaning premium, adding to the pressure on AI infrastructure names.	-$49.9M net premium
Contract-level strike and expiry detail is unavailable today, so these rows show net premium by ticker.	n/a

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.