Markets Today, Sep 21, 2026: Futures Jump as Oil Slides Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Markets Today: Futures Jump as Oil Slides Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Futures are pointing to a broad risk-on open as easing oil prices and anticipation of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit lift sentiment after a mixed week that left the Dow nursing its worst weekly loss since March. Treasury yields are backing off Friday's near-5% high, and traders are still digesting last week's first Fed rate hike since 2023 under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Today hinges on whether a light data slate can hold this bounce together before the week's real catalysts — the summit and a run of consumer earnings — arrive.

Market setup

Key levels (dealer gamma)

Call walls mark strikes where dealer positioning may slow rallies; put walls mark strikes where hedging flows may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

Notable earnings

Already reported: Monday's premarket slate is thin — small-caps CBAK Energy (CBAT) and Korea Electric Power (KEP) reported before the bell.

Still ahead before the open: AutoZone (AZO) reports Tuesday before the bell — options imply a ±8.3% move.

After the close: Abivax (ABVX) reports tonight — options imply ±7.2%. The week's marquee print is Costco (COST) Thursday after the close — options imply ±3.0%.

Index snapshot (Friday close)

Five things that matter today

1. Trump-Xi summit optimism. Treasury Secretary Bessent met China's Vice Premier He Lifeng Sunday ahead of Thursday's summit, with AI policy, tariffs and critical minerals on the agenda.
2. Oil's fourth straight drop. Brent fell for a fourth session as Saudi exports recovered above 4 million barrels/day, even after a weekend Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia.
3. Warsh hiked and left the door open. The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% last week — the first hike since 2023 — and signaled more increases are possible.
4. Dealer gamma is pinned tight. SPY and QQQ options positioning brackets spot in a narrow range, favoring chop absent a fresh catalyst.
5. A loaded earnings week starts tomorrow. AutoZone, Costco and a run of consumer names report this week, with options pricing wide swings.

Notable options flow

What to Watch

The Trump-Xi summit Thursday is the week's biggest wildcard for semis and China-exposed names. Costco's Thursday report will be read as a read-through on consumer resilience amid still-elevated rates, while AutoZone's Tuesday print offers an early look at replacement-parts demand as vehicle fleets age. Keep an eye on whether the 10-year yield can hold below 5% — a break back above could quickly cool this morning's risk-on tone, especially for small caps and rate-sensitive sectors.

Sign-off: markets open in a hopeful mood, but this week has enough catalysts — a presidential summit, a marquee retailer's earnings, and ongoing Fed commentary — to change the tone quickly. Stay nimble.