Market Briefing, Oct 28 2026: Fed Decision at 2 PM, Chip Rally and Oil Back Above $100

Market Briefing, Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Futures are split this morning. Tech is leading because blowout results from memory giant SK Hynix Inc. lifted shares tied to the AI buildout , while the Dow lags and oil is back above $100. An attack targeting a Saudi refinery raised fresh concerns over oil supplies from the Middle East . Today depends on the 2:00 PM Fed decision, where markets largely expect policymakers to hold interest rates steady at 3.75% to 4%, although some anticipate Chair Kevin Warsh could signal further increases . After the close, Microsoft and Alphabet report. Yesterday's energy weakness (XLE -2.05%) against tech strength (XLK +1.70%) shows how much depends on oil and AI right now.

Market setup

S&P 500 futures (little changed overnight)	+0.01%
Nasdaq 100 futures (range across early quotes)	+0.3% to +0.5%
Dow futures (range across early quotes)	-0.2% to -0.3%
Russell 2000 futures (no reliable pre-market quote this morning)	Not available
10-year Treasury yield (up about 2 bp from the prior session)	5.03%
WTI crude, $/bbl (Middle East supply worries back in focus)	$101.65 (+1.75%)
Bitcoin (24-hour change, holding above $80K before the Fed)	$80,847 (+1.5%)
Gold, spot $/oz (gave back Tuesday's bounce as oil rose)	$4,038 (-0.6%)

Key levels (dealer gamma)

SPY (spot ~767)	Unavailable today
QQQ (spot ~715)	Unavailable today

We don't have dealer positioning data for SPY or QQQ today, so we are not listing call or put walls. When we do: call walls mark where dealer positioning may slow rallies, and put walls mark where hedging may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's market calendar (ET)

8:30 AM · Advance U.S. trade balance in goods (no consensus published)	prior -$132.6B
8:30 AM · Wholesale inventories (no consensus published)	prior 0.7%
8:30 AM · Retail inventories (no consensus published)	prior 0.3%
2:00 PM · FOMC rate decision. Fed funds futures put the probability of unchanged rates at roughly 92%	hold 3.75%–4%
2:30 PM · Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference . Traders will listen for any hint of a December hike.	guidance
Thu 8:30 AM · Core PCE Y/Y, the next inflation test right after the Fed	fc 3.1%, prior 3.0%

Notable earnings

Already reported: SK Hynix (SKHY) shares surged more than 6% overnight after posting record third-quarter (Q3) revenue and operating profit, led by stronger memory pricing . Robinhood (HOOD) slipped more than 7% overnight after its Q3 revenue missed estimates . Corning (GLW) beat, and its core operating margin expanded 310 basis points to 22.7% .

Still ahead before the open: APH, BSX, GEV, VRT, IP, UBS, VFC, ADP, OTLY, PSX . GE Vernova's call is at 7:30 AM, and analysts expect GE Vernova to post earnings of $3.99 per share and revenue of $11.99 billion . Options were pricing GEV at ±5.7% earlier in the week.

After the close: Expected moves implied by options pricing: Alphabet ±6.2% and Microsoft ±5.5% . Another options read put Microsoft at ±4.6%. These figures were taken earlier in the week. For Alphabet, analysts have an average revenue estimate of $127.8 billion, which would be a 25% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) of $3 . Also reporting: NOW, KLAC, CVNA, FDX, FTNT, TMUS, CMG, TENB . We couldn't confirm expected moves for these names this morning.

Congress corner

• Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA): sell FDX, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 8, 2026 (FedEx reports tonight)
• Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA): buy ADI, $1K–$15K, traded Oct 8, 2026
• Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK): sell NEE, $15K–$50K, traded Oct 2, 2026
• Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): buy BHE, $15K–$50K, traded Oct 1, 2026
• Sen. John Boozman (R-AR): partial sell MU, $1K–$15K, traded Sep 24, 2026 (disclosed Oct 21)
• Sen. John Boozman (R-AR): buy CSCO, $1K–$15K, traded Sep 24, 2026

These are delayed disclosures, not real-time trades. Trades are due within 45 days, but some are filed months or even years later, so check each trade date.

Social-media trends

Memory and megacap AI names are drawing the most retail attention. On retail social feeds, retail sentiment for SKHY jumped to 'extremely bullish' from 'bullish' levels a day ago amid a 290% surge in 24-hour message volumes . Yesterday, though, SKHY options showed $10.3M in net bearish premium. HOOD is the other crowded name: retail traders remain firm about buying the dip after the revenue miss. Ahead of tonight's reports, GOOG, TSLA and MSFT top WallStreetBets mentions, with Google GOOG at 533 mentions, Tesla TSLA at 320, and Microsoft MSFT at 288 . The options flow matches: TSLA (+$79.3M), MU (+$61.3M) and GOOGL (+$44.1M) led net call premium. Leveraged chip exposure is also crowded. Sentiment on SOXL was 'extremely bullish' after record inflows, and SOXL added $27.1M in net premium.

What matters today

1. Fed Decision at 2:00 PM. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00%. OIS pricing favors a hold, with a 10% chance of a 25bp hike. This is a non-SEP meeting, with no updated economic projections or dot plot released alongside the decision. So the statement and press conference carry all the weight, with close to an 80% probability of a December increase priced in. Thursday's 8:30 AM PCE report comes next, with a 3.7% Y/Y headline and 3.1% core forecast. Trading impact: expect quieter trading into 2:00 PM, then a sharp repricing of rate-sensitive names on any hint about December.
2. Microsoft and Alphabet After the Close. Options price a 4.69% move for Microsoft and a 5.25% move for Alphabet. The Street is modeling $3.02 in earnings per share on $128.20 billion in revenue for Alphabet. Microsoft is expected at EPS of $4.72 and revenue of $90.75 billion , and Microsoft guided in July to Azure growth of about 45%. GOOGL drew $44.1M in net call premium yesterday, the third-largest bullish options flow on the tape. Trading impact: these reports land just hours after the Fed, so moves in megacaps and the Nasdaq can build after hours.
3. SK Hynix Lifts Memory Chips. SK Hynix surpassed KRW 100 trillion in quarterly revenue for the first time in its history , with operating profit of KRW 83.33 trillion with an unprecedented 80% operating margin . South Korea's KOSPI closed up 6.63%. Options flow on US chip names is mixed: MU (+$61.3M) and SOXL (+$27.1M) saw net call buying, while SMH (-$19.2M) and SKHY (-$10.3M) leaned bearish. Trading impact: memory and semiconductor names start with a tailwind, but traders are split on the chip ETFs.
4. Oil Back Above $100. Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to $114.68 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 1.42%, to $101.32 . The bounce follows Tuesday's drop of nearly $2. Two things drove it: Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had struck Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery , and a WSJ report that Trump hasn't decided to go ahead, but was leaning toward a large post-election attack . Trading impact: crude above $100 adds to inflation worries going into the Fed decision and keeps energy stocks moving on Middle East headlines.
5. Boeing Slides; Options Flow Leans Bullish Overall. Boeing's miss sent the stock down 9.31% in premarket trading to $170.78 . It posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.34, wider than the $0.24 loss analysts expected , and said it was targeting a production increase of its best-selling 737 Max aircraft in the second half of 2027. BA had the market's largest bearish options flow at -$30.2M. Across the whole market, though, net call premium was $206.0M against -$77.0M in net puts, led by TSLA at $79.3M. Trading impact: options traders are still leaning bullish going into the Fed, so a hawkish surprise could hit crowded call positions hardest.

Options flow

TSLA multi-strike net flow — the biggest driver of the tide, and call buying exceeded put buying by $65,892,522, making the premium balance bullish ; no single-strike breakdown was available.	$79.3M call-heavy
MU multi-strike net flow — the headline total looks large, but put buying exceeded call buying by $20,948,603, making the premium balance bearish .	$61.3M put-heavy
MRVL multi-strike net flow — chip flow was split, and here call buying exceeded put buying by $6,122,958 .	$17.1M call-heavy
IREN $28.5 C 11/6 — the $28.5 calls were bought with 10 days until expiration , even though IREN's overall flow leaned toward puts.	$548K bought
META $642.5 C 11/6 — the $642.5 calls were bought with 10 days until expiration , a short-dated upside position.	$503K bought
JD $27 C 12/18 — the one longer-dated bet on the list: the $27 calls were bought with 52 days until expiration .	$400K bought

Alertsify is copy trading software for options and stocks, not an RIA or broker-dealer. This post is for information only and is not investment advice.